Huang Su
——You can never predict whether the next transaction will be a loss or a profit, due to market conditions.
The reverse is a idiom, and the words "Historical Records Wu Zixuan Biography": My day is far away, and I am going backwards and reversing it. This is the origin of the reverse action. When trading, whether it is stocks, futures, or foreign exchange, it is about taking advantage of the trend. In fact, everyone is arguing with the trend, and most people are reversing in the transaction - it is contrary to the market conditions.
We can't go backwards in trading, but we should follow the trend and follow the path. Tao is a term used by the Chinese nation to understand nature for itself. It means the orbit or trajectory of everything. What is the way to trade? The small way of trading is the market situation, and the big one is the macro-level, the overall environment of the economy.
We often say that there are mountains in the mountains, there are days outside the mountains, and there is a layer of heaven outside the sky. For the futures trading, the mountain is a trading variety, the sky outside the mountain is the microclimate that determines the market conditions, and the outer layer of the sky is the overall economic environment. From the perennial trading practice, compared with the variety selection trading method of technical analysis, I prefer the market condition trading method.
Deep microclimate, familiar with the environment
There is a doctoral student studying at the Central University of Finance and Economics, and few people who are proficient in technical analysis can reach his level. At the beginning of the entry, Blinger's technical analysis was read, and the technical analysis of the unusually vulgar Murphy narrative that was prevalent in the mainland was dismissed. Schweger’s understanding of the actual combat writings is also in-depth.
He told me: Why do I use technical analysis accurately and choose an impeccable variety of transactions, and often I can't make money and cause big losses? Huang Su saw his trading record: the variety selection is the current hot spot, the trend form is extremely accurate; the K-line combination is also gaining momentum; the long and short moving average bonding is encouraging, and the indicator is also the golden fork buying signal. It can be said that the internal driving force is strong and complete. Just after he bought 1.6% on the same day, the market situation changed greatly, and lost 20% at the close.
I told him that the variety is like a crop, a plant, although he is eager to try, youthful, ready to go, the internal growth genes, power is very strong, and only in the wind and rain, spring and rain can only rejuvenate and thrive. But just when it’s not happening, when it comes to storms and heavy snow, he can only converge and avoid. This is also the same as the drizzle, the spring rain, the storm, the heavy snow. It is the microclimate that determines the growth of the variety, that is, the market conditions of the transaction. Only a few varieties can be reversed and grown against the trend. You have chosen the best trading variety, and the lack of market conditions and micro-climate will be a slap in the face of everything.
If it is only technical analysis, the variety is easy to use, and the accuracy is correct, but you don't know, you can understand the market situation - the microclimate will never make money in the market. As far as market conditions are concerned, weeds will be lush as long as the sun and rain are sufficient. We can often feel that when we are excited about the market, the varieties that fall will not fall. On the contrary, when the market plunges and the storms of the mudslides strike, it is the cold pines and the arbor. Choose to take a moment to avoid. The soaring varieties will have to fall in the face of sluggish and depressed markets. When the market conditions are not good, everything is dying, and no variety can be spared. We can do a tracking comparison, the probability of snow falling and dying is far greater than the possibility of the star variety Ao Xuefeng cream.
A qualified trader who survives in the futures market must understand the microclimate, be familiar with the environment, and control the macro. That is to study the variety, master the market conditions, and understand the policy. This depends on technical analysis and selection of contract varieties, which only account for 30% of the wins; the market conditions of the microclimate, the deep environment of the economic environment, and the familiarity account for 70% of the odds. Therefore, every day, in the hands of Murphy's writings, the online video of the master's lecture video, and the technical analysis as a model, I believe that I have already practiced the Fa, and I have achieved the truth. In fact, I am going to the dead end of the transaction. The deeper it is.
Neglecting the follow-up trading method of technical analysis
In the past few decades, the most popular person I have hired has been a middle-aged citizen of Jiangsu. He has to do transactions every day, but rarely does overnight, only he thinks the trend will continue, and the outer disk is also holding the overnight list. After the opening, he will carefully observe 45 minutes - 60 minutes, combined with several active, sensitive, representative varieties to observe, he always said that he has a futures commodity trading index. Then come to the evaluation and conclusion of the market conditions of the day, and then choose 2-3 varieties to establish a contract. Generally, there is no stop loss. In some cases, if you don't grasp it, you will also set a stop loss, and then you will not see anyone.
Before the market closes, he will come back to close the position, usually earn 5% -10% every day, and earn 40% at most. If he doesn't come back, he will have to hold a position overnight.
Others are very proud and conceited, and they never put other traders and disciples in their eyes. He told me that it was a fool to place an order 30 minutes before the opening; it was a fool to place an order 45 minutes before the opening; only the order after 60 minutes of opening may be as smart as me. Because after 60 minutes, you can find out whether today's market conditions are sluggish, tepid, or hot, based on various varieties, sector data, and external disk progress. It is not the variety, but the market condition that determines the profit and loss; therefore, every day, the technical analysis of the singing and the technical indicators are also half-hanging. If you seize the market conditions, if there is a trading variety called garbage, you will make money when you buy it.
Everyone knows that he has ridiculed his trading methods as a follow-up trading law. He told me frankly that he has a commodity futures trading index he established. As long as the index rises, he will definitely make money, otherwise he will lose money. At that time, he had studied and used this index for three years and has been continuously improving.
He was very mysterious and Huang Su said why the so-called programmatic transactions are unreliable, because they are doing variety, and it is the market condition that determines the profit and loss - the microclimate. You know, as you said, the climate is chaotic, and market assessment can't be done by computer programming, unless one day quantum computers are born.
He often talks about some of the sign language: We all know in the south of the Yangtze River that the spring breeze is a prophet. If a trader and trader only know the trading variety, I don’t know the market conditions, even if his technical analysis level is excellent. Once again, he will only be a loser, because he often goes into a dilemma that is contrary to the market conditions and reverses.
After he left, he called to ask me if his commodity futures index could be patented. I told him that it is difficult because this index is actually an algorithm. The patent laws of various countries stipulate that such an algorithm cannot be protected by patent law.
The dilemma and sorrow of computer programmatic trading
The biggest advantage of computer programmatic trading is that the transaction is no longer mixed with emotions, and the biggest flaw in its trading is the blind riding, triggering the trading signal, buying the variety of positions, and not knowing how the market conditions develop. Many traders and traders who do programmatic trading often ask me about the market today – how is the market climate? I often joked that it was cloudy and sunny, and there were thunderstorms in the afternoon.
The variety matches the opening conditions you set, triggering the buy and opening positions. At this time, the market situation is still unclear. Even though you opened the position, you actually put yourself in the vast ocean of the market--Jun sees a boat, and there is no wind. The fate has been handed over to the microclimate of the market situation. Computer programming is ignorant and overwhelmed by the market conditions - the microclimate. To stabilize the transaction, you must join it, and people's subjective judgments and other factors must be involved to make people feel at ease. The initial advantage of Huangsu's programmatic trading has gradually become its biggest drawback.
I have observed a lot of programmatic trading systems. It was very ideal to buy the contract first. Then I benefited from the market conditions and had a good profit. The result was a sudden change, the microclimate turned to the face, and the profit began to retreat until the big loss triggered the liquidation. This is the case for round-trip transactions, as if the current market is torment, strike, and crush the computer programmatic trading system. And when we "have a good profit from the market conditions", human intervention, profit-taking, but have a very good return.
This shows that people can feel the market conditions, understand the microclimate, understand the spring breeze and the prophet. The computer programmatic transaction can only be "Jun sees a boat, infested in the storm", and the subjective and brain judgment of the person becomes the helmsman of a boat at this time.
If a person or computer program can understand the market situation - the microclimate of trading, he is taking advantage of the trend, buying money with closed eyes will make money; if a pretentious person, computer program, then proficient in technical analysis, can select the transaction variety I don't know the market climate and I am ignorant of the economic environment. He is a blind man riding a Hummer. It is a retrograde application. It is an enemy of the market and market conditions. The outcome can be imagined.
Many traders searched online and publicly, and I got in touch with me. I expressed my desire to learn futures and learn technical analysis and fund management. I asked if I could talk about the specific details encountered in the transaction. This is the case, each trader encounters different problems, as I wrote in my article, the market is different for everyone, and the specific problems encountered vary widely. It is really "clear officials and chores of housework". I try my best to convey the most basic and core concepts of fund management, risk control and trading strategies to everyone.
The way of trading futures is to take advantage of the trend. In fact, this trend is the market situation - the microclimate of trading, and the economic environment. The variety has his frequency of ups and downs, and the market conditions have his own rhythm. In the past comparisons with the hand and computer programs, I have been in a leading position in the market trading method, and never fell behind.
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