Last Friday, international spot gold closed up at $1,228.70 per ounce, silver closed at $15.99 per ounce, and Tiantong Silver closed at $3,477 per kilogram.
In the testimony, the Federal Reserve Yellen stressed the fear of a depressed inflation. She stressed that the Fed is wary of the goal of inflation continuing to fall below 2%. Other members of the Federal Open Market Committee have expressed similar concerns in recent days. She said: "In the coming months, the committee will pay close attention to inflation development."
The economic expansion of the United States has entered its ninth year, employment continues to grow, and inflation has not improved much. The US unemployment rate was 4.4% in June, and the average monthly employment in the past 12 months was 187,000. But the increase in demand for labor did not result in a significant increase in wages. For most of the past five years, the Fed’s favored price target has been below the target of 2%.
The data on Friday proved that she did not care much. The US consumer price index in June fell for the fourth consecutive month, and core inflation fell to its lowest level since January 2015.
The data showed that the US CPI was flat in June, the lowest in 9 months, the smallest increase since October 2016, indicating that inflation may take longer to rebound to the Fed's target. US retail sales in June fell 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, the biggest decline in a year, less than expected (0.1%), core retail performance is not good, the largest decline since February 2014, but the expected increase in value The performance is still far from satisfactory.
This week, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will announce policy decisions, which need to be focused. In terms of data, there are Eurozone and UK inflation data.
The dollar fell against a basket of major currencies on Friday, hitting a new low of 95.09 since September 2016. The previously released US consumer price and retail sales data in June were weaker than expected, raising questions about the strength of the US economy and whether the Fed can This year, the rate hike again.
From the technical day K-line chart, the US dollar index closed in the negative, the lower support level is 80.90% of the golden division 94.27; the weekly line refers to the small Yin, the half-year line is under pressure. Last Friday, the US dollar index closed near the lowest price, and it is expected that there will be inertia at the beginning of the week. The author Fang Shiping expects the US dollar index to rebound this week. The US dollar index supported 94.74, 94.36, and the resistance was 95.85, 96.58.
EUR/USD support 1.1397, 1.1325, resistance 1.1515, 1.1561
EURUSD: The euro rose to a near two-month high against the US dollar, mainly due to the weakening of the US dollar and the European Central Bank may end the purchase of bonds. The market is currently concerned about the latest interest rate decision to be announced by the European Central Bank on July 20.
The Wall Street Journal reported last Thursday that the European Central Bank (ECB) may hint in September that it will phase out its bond purchase program next year, and ECB President Draghi may give a new clue to the action at the end of August.
Most people in the financial market expect that the European Central Bank will decide in September to stimulate the path of the policy after the end of this year; some investors expect the central bank to extend the stimulus policy and then reduce the purchase of bonds at one time; others believe that the central bank will gradually Stable reduction in bond purchases.
The euro hit a 14-month high of 1.1489 against the dollar on Wednesday, as the market believes that the European Central Bank will begin to adjust the direction of ultra-loose monetary policy as early as possible.
This week, investors will focus on the ECB meeting, which will surely bring a new round of tightening panic. The European Central Bank will hold a new monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt on July 20th at 19:45. After that, Draghi will speak on the results of the interest rate resolution. The speech of Draghi will set off a wave of market.
From the technical daily chart, the euro closed in the middle of the yang, supported by the 10-day moving average; the weekly euro climbed, and whether it can break the previous high of 1.1489 this week remains to be seen. The author Fang Shiping expects the euro to face a correction this week, the key is to look at the callback.
Trading strategy: If the exchange rate rebound is stable above 1.1472, consider taking a light position to do more, with a target of 1.1524-1.1561; if the exchange rate rebounds and defeats 1.1444, continue to try to short, target 1.1397-1.1364.
GBP/USD support 1.2903, 1.2706, resistance 1.3205, 1.3310
GBPUSD: GBP/USD hit a 10-month high of 1.3114 last Friday, up 1.26%. The previously released economic data further weakened expectations for further US interest rate hikes.
After the weak economic data in the UK dragged down this week, the pound trade-weighted index is currently rising nearly 0.5%, against a series of negative news with the EU on the Brexit negotiations.
A number of Bank of England policymakers made speeches in the past week, providing some support for the pound. Some market participants still expect the UK to raise interest rates next month.
Last week's data showed that although the salary increase in the three months to May further lags behind inflation, the salary increase is slightly higher than expected.
From the technical daily chart, the pound closed the Yangyang line, the upper pressure is 1.3200; the weekly sterling closed the Yangxian line and stood on the 60-day moving average. After last week's pull up, the author Fang Shiping expects the pound to face a correction this week, the key to see the callback.
Trading strategy: If the exchange rate rebound is stable at 1.3114, consider taking a light position to do more, with a target of 1.3228-1.3310; if the exchange rate rebounds and loses 1.3050, you can continue to try short, target 1.2985-1.2903.
USD/JPY supports 111.70, 110.88, resistance 113.92, 115.32
USDJPY: USD/JPY began to fall gradually after the Asian plate rose to a high of 113.58 on Friday. After the US released weak economic data last Friday, the USD/JPY plunged to a daily low of 112.27.
The dollar's rising momentum against the yen stopped last week as the Fed's policy in Congress suppressed the Fed's expectation of tightening monetary policy again.
Sources said that the Bank of Japan's policy meeting this week is expected to raise its economic growth forecast, but lowered its optimistic inflation outlook, which makes the outside world more expect the Bank of Japan to lag far behind the world in terms of retracing large-scale stimulus plans. Central bank.
From the technical daily chart, the yen closed, the semi-annual support, the callback test 38.2% of the golden division 112.35; the weekly yen closed, the half-year line under pressure. Last week's yen callback was in line with the author's analysis. The author Fang Shiping expects the yen to rebound this week. The key is to see the yen's rebound.
Trading strategy: If the exchange rate falls above 112.79, it can continue to be light-selling, with a target of 113.32-114.10. If the exchange rate rebounds below 112.27, consider entering short, with a target of 111.48-110.88.
AUD/USD support 0.7667, 0.7503, resistance 0.7914, 0.7997
AUDUSD: The Australian dollar broke through the 0.7800 mark on Friday, hitting a near 15-month high of 0.7834, helped by a wider investor risk appetite improvement and higher commodity prices, especially iron ore prices.
Although it is unlikely that commodity prices will return to the June low in the next few weeks, there will be a drive to boost the Australian dollar against the dollar and well above the 0.7700 mark.
From the technical daily chart, the Australian dollar closed 6 consecutive yang, the upper pressure is 0.7900; the weekly Australian dollar closed the Yangyang line, and the lower half of the line supported. Last week, the Australian dollar rebounded in line with the author's analysis. The author Fang Shiping expects the Australian dollar to face a correction this week. The key is to see the callback.
Trading strategy: If the exchange rate rebounds above 0.7834, consider taking a light position and the target is 0.7867-0.7904. If the exchange rate rebounds and loses 0.7797, you can continue to try short, target 0.7760-0.7690.
Gold support 1211.42, 1194.13., resistance 1239.47, 1250.23
Last Friday, gold rose 0.96%, the highest level rose to the highest level of 1232.95 US dollars / ounce in the past two weeks, once regained above the $ 1230 / ounce mark. The decline in the US CPI growth rate was expressed by Yellen, indicating that the Fed’s concerns are justified and will slow down the market’s expectation that the Fed will raise interest rates again during the year, which will benefit gold and bearish dollars.
Gold rose 1.32% last week, the biggest weekly increase since mid-May. At $1228.70 per ounce, the highest is $1232.95 per ounce, and the lowest is $1204.90 per ounce. It remains to be seen whether gold will be boosted by the previous downturn.
From the technical daily line, gold closed in the middle of the yang, the first half of the line was under pressure; weekly gold received Xiaoyang, half-year line support. This week's focus is on the defensive situation of gold at $1,220 per ounce (Golden's "Magino Line")!
The initial resistance above gold is $1232.95 per ounce, $1,240 per ounce, $1,245.60 per ounce, $1,250 per ounce, $1,260 per ounce, $1,267.18 per ounce, $1,280 per ounce, and June 6 high of $1,296.06 per ounce. $1300/oz psychological barrier, $1315/oz, April 14, 2014 high of $1331.15 per ounce, July 10 high of $1,345.28 per ounce, $1,350 per ounce, $1,637.28 on July 6 last year / Ounces, breaking through 1375.28 will advance to $1392.08 per ounce, the August 28, 2013 high of $1433.85 per ounce, $1,500 per ounce and $1,600 per ounce;
Initial support below $1,220/oz (Golden Maginot Line), May 9 low of $1214.39 per ounce, July 10 low of $1204.90 per ounce, $1,200/oz mining cost, $1,180 /ozere platform position, $1,100/oz, $1080/oz, $106.50/oz, $1,052.20/oz, $1,046/oz (December 3, 2015 low). Last week's gold rebound was in line with the author's analysis. The author Fang Shiping expects gold to face a correction this week.
Trading strategy: If the gold price rebound is stable above 1232.95, consider continuing to do more, the target is 1240-1245.60; if the gold price falls below 1225.52; you can try to short the short position, the target is 1218.08-1207.47.
Crude oil support 44.64, 42.60, resistance 47.73, 48.78
US WTI August crude oil futures electronic trading price closed up 0.60 US dollars last Friday, or 1.30%, to 46.68 US dollars / barrel. Affected by the decline in US oil inventories, US crude oil production has slowed slightly, and China's demand has increased, but the market is volatile, as global supply is still abundant.
The US and the two oils rose more than 5% last week. The International Energy Agency (IEA) released a report that global oil demand is expected to grow rapidly. PetroChina's 601,857, stock imports increased, and US crude oil inventories fell.
According to China Customs data, the country’s oil imports in the first half of this year increased by 13.8% year-on-year. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday that US crude oil inventories fell by 7.6 million barrels last week, the largest weekly decline in 10 months.
From the technical weekly chart, the crude oil received 2 consecutive yang, the upper pressure was 60-day moving average; the weekly crude oil received Xiaoyang, and the dense area 44 supported strong. Last week's crude oil rebound was in line with the author's analysis. The author Fang Shiping expects that crude oil will face a correction this week.
Trading strategy: If you break through 46.74 and consider the light warehouse to do more, the target is 47.73-48.78; if the oil price rebounds and breaks 46.41, you can continue to try to short, the target is 45.47-44.64.
The main data areas of concern today are as follows:
17:00 Eurozone June consumer price index final value (annual rate and monthly rate)
Fang Shiping shouted: the euro was short near 1.1480, stop loss 1.1561, target 1.1279, 1.1200, 1.1160
Sterling short near 1.3110, stop loss 1.3228, target 1.2903, 1.2872, 1.2812
Short near the Australian dollar 0.7840, stop loss 0.7914, target 0.7667, 0.7587, 0.7503
The yen is long near 112.30, stop loss 111.48, target 114.10, 115.32, 116.14
Canadian dollar long near 1.2610, stop loss 1.2544, target 1.2844, 1.3044, 1.3144
The Swiss franc is long near 0.9620 with a stop loss of 0.9548 and a target of 0.9787, 0.9860, 0.9900.
The US dollar index is near 95, stop loss 94.27, target 96.58, 96.96, 97.90
Crude oil shorts around 46.60, stop loss 47.73, target 44.64, 43.65, 42.60
Gold shorts around 1230, stop loss 1240, target 1218.08, 1214.90, 1211.42, 1204.90, 1200, 1194.13
Silver shorts around 16, stop loss 16.62, target 15.44, 15,14.88, 14.52, 14.30, 14
Short selling near Tiantong Silver 3480, stop loss 3616, target 3362, 3280, 3252, 3183, 3140, 3080
(Editor: Wang Zhiqiang HF013)
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