Huitong.com February 28th - Overnight gold prices rallied, and in the case of poor performance of durable goods orders and new home sales data, the short-term rise of the 200-day moving average of 1,262 US dollars, the Federal Reserve Board of Directors Kaplan continued to deliver hawkish speech The Fed’s probability of raising interest rates in March rose to 50%, which made some longs profit-taking. The market is still waiting for Trump’s congressional speech. Can the gold price fly to the sky? At present, the difficulty is still large. 
☆ Kaplan speech once again pushes up the probability of a rate hike in March☆
On Tuesday (February 28), Dallas Fed President and 2017 FOMC Voter Robert Kaplan once again delivered a hawkish speech, raising the Fed’s interest rate hike in March to 50% for December 2016. The highest interest rate, which helped the dollar regain its 101 mark, and the price of gold was significantly dragged down.
Kaplan said that the Fed should let the balance sheet shrink naturally without affecting the market. What is important is that the Fed needs independence. The Fed’s current monetary policy is highly accommodative, and we are approaching inflation and employment targets. Action should be sooner rather than later. “It should be sooner rather than later†means “recentâ€, which can help the Fed avoid falling behind the curve.
Kaplan also said that the current Fed’s monetary policy is highly lenient, but it is not extremely lenient; it should reduce the easing of policies, but it needs to be gradual. The labor market is still idle, and the idle situation may be higher than the 4.8% unemployment rate, but the situation is not as serious as some people expected; in the absence of price pressure, the labor market can be further idle.
Priya Misra, head of global interest rate strategy at TD Securities, pointed out that the market’s speech to Kaplan and possible indications that tax reforms and infrastructure work will be earlier, rather than postponed, are all very economically favorable.
According to Huitong.com, after Kaplan’s speech, according to US federal funds rate futures data, the probability of a rate hike in the Federal Reserve in March has risen to 50% (40% in the previous day), and the probability of raising interest rates in May has risen to 66. % (previously 61%). 
(List of US federal funds rate futures)
Huitong.com reminded that on Wednesday (March 1st, Beijing time), the US Federal Reserve Bank President and 2017 FOMC voting committee Patrick Harker will also deliver a speech on economic issues, 4:30 US Federal Reserve Chairman of the United States William John Williams will also make a speech. If these officials publish more hawkish speech than they have already, it is expected to further push up the market’s expectation of the Fed’s action in March, which will help the dollar strengthen and form the price of gold. Suppressed.
☆ Three reasons why the gold gains are strong outside? ☆
According to Huitong.com, although the price of gold broke the resistance around $1,244 last week and refreshed the three-and-a-half-month high to $1,263.94 overnight, the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR, since February 18. The position has not changed, still maintained at 841.17 tons, which implies that many fund managers are not optimistic about the gold market in the medium and long term.
In addition, although in the past few weeks, European political risks, especially the French elections, have pushed up the market's risk aversion, but at present, the market generally believes that the French extreme right candidate rate Le Pen cannot be in the second round of the general election. Winning, this week's risk aversion has weakened, which has caused the gold price to lose some of its further upward momentum.
3 In addition, it is worth mentioning that since 2017, the US economic data is still relatively strong, the US CPI rose by 0.6% in January, the largest increase since February 2013; and the market expects the United States to be released at 21:30 in the evening. Quarterly GDP will be revised; Wednesday's heavyweight PCE price index for January will be released on Wednesday night, and the market is expected to be relatively strong. These will help the dollar strengthen, or it will drag down the price of gold.
☆Market pays attention to Trump speech☆
In addition to economic data and Fed officials' speeches, Trump's speech at Congress at 10:00 on March 1st in Beijing is still the focus of the market, and the market is expecting more details on its fiscal policy, especially tax reform. , infrastructure and other aspects. 
Trump announced the defense budget on Monday (February 27), he said that he will add a defense budget of 54 billion US dollars in the new fiscal year budget to fulfill his commitment to defend US security, which may also make the current The US military has become the strongest army in human history.
The White House government budget officials subsequently stated that $54 billion would be deducted from other government flexible budgets and non-defense projects, including sharp cuts in aid overseas.
WikiLeaks pointed out that 54 billion US dollars is equivalent to Russia's military budget for the whole year, and US military expenditure is equivalent to the total military expenditure of the second to tenth countries.
In addition, Trump said on Monday that we will "spend big money" on the infrastructure; the White House has submitted the Trump 2018 Budget Blue Book to federal agencies on Monday.
For Trump's forthcoming speech in Congress, Danish Dansk Bank analyst Jens Pederson said that the content of Trump's speech may be important to gold. For example, if he announces a large-scale fiscal easing plan that will stimulate inflation expectations and drive investors to switch to gold, the border adjustment tax (import tax) will probably push up the dollar, which is not good for gold. Any adjustment in foreign policy may mean an increase in political uncertainty that will benefit gold.
Kathleen Brooks, research director at Jiasheng Group, believes that from a political point of view, after a series of mistakes in the first month (including the resignation of the national security adviser and the criticism of the immigration decision of some Islamic countries), the speech was Trang. Pu provided an opportunity to re-open. In addition, for Trump, who has been arbitrarily approving various decrees in his first month, this is also a good opportunity for him to introduce to Congress the next year he wants to make a contribution to Capitol Hill.
Kathleen Brooks also pointed out that some officials who have been exposed to the lectures said that Trump will carry out four major political aspects: tax cuts, border security, health care, and fiscal expenditure/infrastructure projects. We believe that the speech will also involve the abolition of the US banking industry's Dodd-Frank Act and the relaxation of financial market controls.
☆Technical surface shows a large number of short-term variables, can you see the 200-day moving average? 
Spot gold daily chart)
From a technical point of view, Huitong.com believes that after the 200-day moving average is blocked, the short-term callback risk is relatively high. The 5-day moving average support is around $1,249. The day is concerned about the support around the 10-day moving average of $1,243, if it falls below the 10-day moving average. The price of gold may further test the support of the US$1,227 mid-rail of the Bollinger Band on the daily line. If you can hold the 10-day moving average, the gold price will still have the opportunity to test the resistance near the 200-day moving average, but as long as you effectively stand on the 200-day moving average, you can open another round of rising channels.
Important financial data and major events that need attention in Tuesday (February 28) include:
1 15:45 France's fourth quarter GDP initial value
2 21:30 US real GDP revision in the fourth quarter, revised personal consumption expenditure and January commodity trade account
3 22:45 US February Chicago PMI
4 23:00 US February Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
5th day 04:00 US Federal Reserve Fed President Huck (2017 FOMC Ticket Committee) talks about economy in Philadelphia
6th day 04;30 San Francisco Fed President Williams (with voting rights in 2018)
7th day 05:30 American Petroleum Institute (API) releases crude oil inventory data as of February 24
8th day 07:50 US St. Louis Fed President Brad (with voting rights in 2019) speaks in Washington
9th day 10:00 US President Trump speaks on Capitol Hill
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