The increase in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs indicates that economic growth has stabilized and become more positive. The future economic growth is steadily rising. However, due to the improvement of corporate profits, the willingness to expand production, the recovery of production growth has accelerated noticeably, and some high-energy-consuming industries and industries with overcapacity rebounded significantly and deserve attention.
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On June 30, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Survey Center and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing issued the China Purchasing Manager Index. Data show that in June manufacturing PMI was 51.7%, the second highest point of the year; non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.9%, rising for two consecutive months.
Experts said that both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs have increased, indicating that China's economic growth has stabilized and become more positive. The future economic growth is steadily rising. However, due to the improvement of corporate profits, the willingness to expand production, the recovery of production growth has accelerated noticeably, and some high-energy-consuming industries and industries with overcapacity rebounded significantly and deserve attention.
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Manufacturing PMI rises to the second highest point of the year
In June, the manufacturing PMI was 51.7%, which was the second highest point during the year, indicating that the pace of expansion of the manufacturing industry has accelerated, and the development trend has been generally stable. In the first half of the year, the manufacturing PMI averaged 51.5%.
Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics Service Survey Center, said that in June, the manufacturing production index and new order index were 54.4% and 53.1%, respectively, up 1.0 and 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the supply and demand growth rate was accelerating. The market environment gradually improved.
Judging from the import and export situation, in June, the new export orders index and import index were 52.0% and 51.2%, both at the critical point and above for 8 consecutive months, which was the high point for the year, indicating that domestic and international demand picked up, and imports and exports continued to return. Stable.
With the recovery of market demand, companies’ willingness to purchase increased, driving the recovery of the price index. In June, the purchasing volume index of manufacturing industry was 52.5%, which was 1.0 percentage points higher than the previous month, and corporate procurement activities accelerated.
The industrial structure is also being optimized and upgraded, and the quality of supply continues to increase. In June, equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMI were 53.0% and 53.6%, respectively, higher than the 0.9 and 1.0 percentage points in the previous month.
Zhao Qinghe said that despite the overall pick-up of PMI, there are still some difficulties in the production and operation of some traditional industries. Surveys show that PMIs in petroleum processing and coking, chemical materials and chemical manufacturing, chemical fiber and rubber plastic products, and non-metallic mineral products industries are continuously below the critical point, and downward pressure remains. In addition, the proportion of companies that reflect capital shortages has exceeded 40% for four consecutive months. The financial support for the financial services entity economy needs to be further strengthened.
Non-manufacturing PMI continues to rise
In June, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.9%, which rose for two consecutive months, and non-manufacturing industries continued to maintain a stable growth trend. The average non-manufacturing business activity index in the first half of this year was 54.6%, which was 1.2 percentage points higher than the same period of last year.
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In the non-manufacturing PMI individual index, the expectations for new orders, new export orders, on-hand orders, input prices, sales prices, employees, and business activities increased by an increase from 0.1 to 1.3 percentage points. The supplier delivery time index was flat compared to the previous month; the inventory index fell 0.2% month-on-month.
Zhao Qinghe said that in June, the service industry maintained its upward trend, with the business activity index at 53.8%. The service industry accelerated its growth for two consecutive months, and its stabilizing effect on economic development continued to increase. With the accelerated growth of the manufacturing industry, both the producer service industry and the logistics business activity index rose to above 59.0%.
“In a comprehensive view, non-manufacturing industries have continued to steadily increase and reflect that the current economic operation is developing in the direction of improving quality and efficiency.†Cai Jin, Vice President of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, said that in June, the non-manufacturing business activity index and new The order index continued to rise, market prices and employment-related indices both rebounded, business expectations are also optimistic, and the economy is operating steadily.
The economy is expected to maintain moderate growth
In June, both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs increased, indicating that economic growth has stabilized and become more positive. Zhang Liqun, researcher of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that the PMI index rebounded slightly in June, and the order index index all rebounded, reflecting the continued recovery of domestic and foreign market demand; the finished goods inventory index decreased and the ex-factory price index rose, indicating that the product sales situation is improving. Based on comprehensive judgments, the future economic growth will be steadily rising.
According to Chen Zhongtao, an expert from the China Logistics Information Center, in June, the major sub-indices in the manufacturing PMI rebounded. Combined with the data from the previous two months, the trend of the PMI index in the second quarter was basically stable, indicating that the economically stable and well-founded foundation tends to be consolidated.
Wu Wei, an expert from the China Logistics Information Center, said that the business activity index of the construction industry and the new orders index rose in June compared with the previous month, indicating continued release of investment-related construction demand, indicating that this year’s related investment based on infrastructure construction is expected to continue to be a solid economy. The main driving force for growth.
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Chen Zhongtao reminded that at present, due to the improvement of corporate profits, the willingness to expand production has increased, production growth has picked up significantly, and the gap between supply and demand has shown signs of expansion. The average gap between the production index and the new order index in the second quarter was 1.3 percentage points, which was 0.6 percentage point higher than that in the first quarter. In particular, the high-energy-consuming industries and overcapacity industries rebounded significantly in June, and the overall recovery rate was 2 percentage points. This situation is not conducive to consolidation. De-capacity, destocking results are not conducive to maintaining a basic balance between market supply and demand.
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