1. The central environmental protection inspector has comprehensive coverage and policy enforcement is constantly under pressure
The environmental protection system tends to be perfect: Action plans for the prevention and control of atmospheric, water and soil pollution have been issued in succession; the new environmental protection law has been implemented since 2015; the issuance of pollution discharge permits for enterprises in key industries and overcapacity industries has been gradually implemented; the implementation of the environmental protection tax law has been promoted; Retreat to the city "planning. In the near future, the fourth batch of central environmental protection inspectors was launched and national coverage was achieved. Feedback results and remediation plans were put forward throughout the country. The normalization mechanism for environmental protection was gradually established. Among them, the environmental supervision and supervision exercise the responsibility of the party and the government. To achieve the goal of environmental protection, the government will formulate a planning plan that will be more stringent. Environmental protection has become an important factor affecting the pattern of supply and demand in the highly polluting sub-sector of chemical industry.
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2, environmental supervision and normalization, which chemical products are most affected
From the distribution of national chemical products in different provinces, the areas with higher concentration in the chemical industry are mainly in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Sichuan, Henan and other provinces. In recent years, some of the more polluting industries have been transferred to Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and other western regions. The trend is also more obvious. Among them, the production capacity of Zhejiang printing and dyeing, polyester filament, R134a, methyl acetoacetate, MDI, sorbic acid and potassium sorbate, and diketene accounted for more than 30% of the national product. Shandong Province, propylene oxide, dimethyl carbonate, R22, sorbic acid and potassium sorbate, caustic soda, carbon black, diketene and other categories accounted for more than 20% of national production capacity.
On August 7, 2017, the fourth group of central environmental protection inspectors started their work of inspecting Jilin, Zhejiang, Shandong, Hainan, Sichuan, Tibet, Qinghai and Xinjiang (including Bingtuan). Eight provinces and municipalities involved in 19 kinds of products accounted for more than 30% of the national production capacity, of which 10 kinds of chemical products accounted for more than 50% of production capacity. The industries with high production capacity in the above 8 provinces and cities mainly include sub-industries such as refrigerants, printing and dyeing, potassium sorbate, dimethyl carbonate, dyes, MDI, viscose, chlor-alkali, glyphosate, soda ash, and titanium dioxide.
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3, environmental protection + supply double constraints, some sub-industry boom may continue to exceed expectations
According to the pattern of supply and demand, the sections that are most likely to cause price increases exceeding expectations due to environmental protection include: viscose (Sanyou Chemical, Zhongtai Chemical), chlor-alkali (Zhongtai Chemical, Xinjiang Tianye, Sanyou Chemical), and MDI (Wanhua Chemical) ), Soda Ash (Shandong Haihua, Sanyou Chemicals), Titanium Dioxide (Longquanli), Glyphosate and Silicone (Jiangshan, Xin'an, Xingfa). From the point of view of valuation, the majority of PEs in 2017, such as Wanhua Chemicals, Sanyou Chemicals, Zhongtai Chemicals, Xinjiang Tianye and Shandong Haihua, are still between 10-13X. With the onset of the peak season, profit forecasting will continue to be expected to increase, which is a typical blue-chip periodical with low valuation + performance.
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And some sub-categories of small items, such as glyphosate, potassium sorbate and diketene (Acetate, Jinye), dimethyl carbonate (Stone Dashenghua), rubber additives (Yanggu Huatai), carbon black (black In industries such as Cats), due to the small scale of the industry and the high proportion of domestic production capacity in the world, the marginal changes in production capacity are much more sensitive than those in the general industry. Although these sub-industry leaders may currently look at valuations of more than 15X, they are also worth tracking closely due to the fact that prices are subject to intense environmental impact and greater performance flexibility.
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