Affected by the sharp increase in the purchase price of seed cotton during the National Day, the Zheng cotton market was stronger in October, after which the purchase price of seed cotton fell, driving the decline in futures prices. Recently, the purchase price of seed cotton has stabilized, and the cotton replenishment of textile enterprises is just around the corner.
The price of seed cotton has stabilized and rebounded.
During the National Day, the price of seed cotton showed an increase of about 10%, but after the National Day, it fell by 0.7 yuan/kg, basically returning to the price at the end of September. From the end of October, the seed cotton stopped falling and stabilized, and appeared in early November. A small rebound, the seed cotton market rush to buy enthusiasm is hard to fade.
From the analysis of the entire industrial chain, due to the overcapacity of domestic ginning mills and the relative lack of seed cotton resources, the ginning mills have poor bargaining power. For many ginning mills, in the case of lower processing profit, it is necessary to increase the processing volume to dilute the cost. It is understood that the current seed cotton purchase progress in Xinjiang is around 60%. From the current situation, the price of seed cotton in the late stage is difficult to fall, and there is even the possibility of a rise, and there is still support for the market.
Textile enterprises replenish the library gradually
The rhythm of the replenishment of the textile enterprises gradually warmed up, which is obviously positive for the recent cotton market. In September, textile companies added a large amount of cotton for storage, which is in response to the current market. According to statistics from relevant departments, as of the end of September, the industrial inventory of textile enterprises was 700,000 tons, and the commercial stock of traders was 500,000 tons. According to the monthly consumption of 650,000 tons, the current circulating cotton resources in the market are only 550,000 tons. Less than a month's consumption, textile companies urgently need to replenish the warehouse.
In addition, after the National Day, the yarn price has risen to a certain extent, the profits of textile enterprises have increased, and the acceptance of high-priced cotton in the previous period has increased. Recently, some traders said that textile companies' purchase orders have gradually appeared, and cotton prices have begun to rise. It is estimated that within 7-10 days, the textile enterprises will increase their cargo.
Long-term domestic supply is looser
Judging from the balance of supply and demand in the domestic cotton market, the 2016/17 cotton supply is not tight, and it will be looser at some stage. The 2016/17 cotton year will be dumped in March next year. With this year's experience and lessons, the possibility of policy changes is very small, and the initial stage will be well prepared. There will be no shortage of public inspections this year. The bottleneck of the aspect.
Therefore, at least in the early stage of the next year, there will be no expectation that the supply will be in short supply, and the National Reserve can fully satisfy the market.
At the end of September this year, we counted a total of 1.22 million tons of industrial and commercial inventories, plus a total of 4.5 million tons of domestic production, totaling 5.72 million tons. On the import side, according to the rhythm of last year, it is expected to import 450,000 tons in the first five months of the 2016/17 cotton year. . The total supply was 6.17 million tons at the end of February next year.
On the demand side, with a total of 650,000 tons/month, the total demand will be 3.25 million tons by the end of February next year. According to the above data, as of the end of February next year, the market cotton stocks will reach 2.92 million tons. The dumping, which began in March next year, is planned to be completed by the end of August for a total of six months. Due to the full preparation, it can basically meet the scale of 3.6 million tons of reserve cotton.
Therefore, from the analysis of supply and demand, the supply of cotton in China will not be tight in the 2016/17 cotton year, and it is difficult to support the long-term maintenance of cotton prices at the current price.
In summary, in the short-term, the domestic cotton market is stabilized by the purchase price of seed cotton and the textile enterprises are replenishing stocks. The cotton price is difficult to fall back. However, from the longer period analysis, the domestic market supply is relatively loose, and the downward pressure on the market price is relatively large.
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