South China Morning Review 20170921

Black early review

1. Rebar: weak shock, rebound short

Yesterday Tangshan steel billet rose 20 reports to 3700 (slow down 10 on weekends), the country's finished materials stabilized and weakened, Shanghai 20mm HRB400 fell 10 reports 4030 / ton. The price of the night trading fluctuated.

Social inventories continued to rise significantly, and have risen by more than 20% in the low level. The peak season is expected to have a certain overdraft risk. Terminal demand is still less than expected, environmental supervision has curbed some construction needs, coupled with weak macro data, while construction and production remain high, and the contradiction of inventory backlogs put pressure on the market. Recently, environmental protection and production restrictions have been intertwined, and all construction sites in Beijing have been shut down, which is unfavorable demand; many steel mills are beginning or near to limit production, which is unfavorable to the supply side. In the short term, steel prices will still be weakly adjusted and try to short. However, the limited production is expected to affect the production of molten iron by 32 million to 37 million tons, and the output of crude steel is 3550 to 41 million tons. The impact on demand is not easy to quantify, but the inventory is likely to fall again, and the risk of chasing is relatively high. The virtual profit of the thread fluctuated.

2. Hot Roll: Shock

Yesterday, the national hot coil price fluctuated, and most of the regions weakened slightly. The Shanghai 4.75mm hot coil reported 4080 (-50). The price of the price fluctuated.

In August, macro data collectively fell, manufacturing demand was flat, and inventories remained stable in the past two weeks. Environmental protection caused some downstream processing enterprises to suspend production and rectify and suppress some demand. At the supply end, the recent steel mills in Hebei Province are opening or about to limit production, and the impact on the volume of hot coil production is expected to be large. It is expected that the hot coil will return to the tight supply and demand pattern, with more shocks. Hot rolls buy 1 empty 5 hold, buy hot coils can be involved in bargain hunting.

3. Iron ore: rebound short

Yesterday, the port PB powder 545 yuan / wet tons (-7), Platts 62 reported 67.85 (-0.8). The price of the night trading fluctuated.

The demand for steel is weak, the increase in stocks has suppressed the black system, and the steel mills in Hebei have started or are about to limit production. The iron ore period is now weakening together, with a large decline. At the supply end, the recent shipments of seaborne shipments remained at a high level, and the volume of arrivals also increased. The decline in port stocks slowed down, the shortage of high-grade mines was alleviated, and the premiums fell slightly. The average inventory of steel mills fell by one day to 24 days. If the environmental protection and production limit is strictly implemented, the demand for iron ore will be greatly reduced by 5,000 to 62 million tons, but the space for high grade ore is limited, and the price of the mine is under pressure for a long time. In September, the water was delivered to the market, and the price of the PB powder was nearly 50 yuan. I1801 bounced off above 520.

4. Coal char: night disk consolidation

Coke, the price was steady yesterday. Recently, steel prices have weakened, black collectives have retreated, and steel mills have taken the lead in limiting production. Coke futures prices have fallen sharply. Coke coking stocks are low, and there is a boosting power; but steel mills are neutral in stock, coupled with the recent weak steel prices, the increase in blast furnace production, may not accept price increases, the coke steel game may increase, the spot may hold steady. At present, the price discount has exceeded 10%, the coking plant has gradually started to limit production, and the impact of both ends of the supply and demand of coke in the later period of environmental protection, between the small shortage and the small surplus, depends on the intensity and rhythm of environmental protection. The short-term price is expected to usher in a short-term rebound, and the medium-term price will remain weak.

Coking coal, the price was steady yesterday. At present, the overall supply and demand is stable, but in some areas due to safety inspection or transportation problems, supply is tight. The stock of coking coal in steel mills is neutral, the inventory of coking plants is high, and the environmental protection and production limit is expected to suppress the replenishment power. The inventory of production sites is still falling, but the downstream inventory continues to rise. Spot coal prices are still running strongly, but the discounted delivery in September will definitely drag down futures pricing. The expected short-term expectations for coking, environmental protection and limited production in winter steel mills will continue to suppress coking coal. Coal prices fluctuated weakly and rebounded short.

5. Glass:

At present, the inventory of production enterprises is at a normal level, the operating funds of the manufacturers are relatively abundant, and the market confidence is good. From the national average price, it is basically close to the same period of last year, and from the regional perspective, the spot price of Shahe area is higher than the level of 120 yuan in the same period last year. What is different from last year is that the speed and range of price increases in South China this year are relatively good, and there has not been a phenomenon of skyrocketing and slumping in the same period last year. From the perspective of downstream market demand, it is weaker than the same period last year, mainly due to the slight decrease in orders for real estate building decoration and decoration, and the mutual verification of real estate data published by the National Bureau of Statistics. Last night, the glass 01 contract rushed to 1355, which was weak, and the closing price rebounded slightly. From a technical point of view, there is still the possibility of a rebound today. Operationally, it is still recommended to leave the rallies of Bo rebounded above 1355.

White sugar early review

The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) raw sugar futures rose on Wednesday as selling was stopped after Brazilian prices fell below ethanol parity. Zheng sugar oscillated sideways at night, and the price did not change much. In terms of spot, Liuzhou middlemen offer 6560-6590 yuan / ton, Nanning middlemen offer 6600 yuan / ton. From a technical point of view, the daily line level, MACD green column shrinks, the fast and slow line is close to the gold fork, KDJ gold fork up, the bottom 6100 support, the upper 6270 pressure. On the 30-minute line, MACD maintains the red column, the fast and slow line gold forks up, KDJ gold forks up, pay attention to the 120-day moving average pressure. Trading strategy: It is advisable to put high and low sucks in the day and lay more singles in the middle line.

Oil and fat oil early review

Information:

1. Agroconsult, a Brazilian consultancy, released a report showing that Brazil's soybean production in 2017/18 is expected to reach 111.1 million tons, a 4% decrease from the record level of the year. Agroconsult expects Brazil's soybean acreage to increase by 3% in 2017/18 to 35 million hectares. Agroconsult also expects Brazil's first season corn production to be 26.1 million tons in 2017/18, a 14% decrease from the previous year.

2. Shipment survey agency Intertek Agri Services (ITS) released data showing that Malaysian palm oil exports from September 1-20, 2017 were 852,206 tons, up 25.41% from 679,539 tons in the same period in August. According to data released by another agency, SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1-20, 2017 were 878,422 tons, an increase of 26.83% from 692,622 tons in the same period in August.

3, September 20, the soybean meal Nantong dealer 2780, down 10 yuan / ton, Cargill 1801 + 80 (10-January). Zhangjiagang traders' 24 degree palm oil price was 5960, down 4 yuan/ton. Jiangsu Zhangjiagang trader level soybean oil 6400, down 50 yuan / ton. The first-grade soybean oil 11-month basis contract price Y1801 + 180 yuan / ton. Malaysian palm oil FOB offer September shipping offer of 712.5 US dollars / ton, down 2.5, October shipping quoted 707.5 US dollars / ton, down 7.5, September shipping time to the port duty-paid cost 5880-5940 yuan / ton, compared to Guangzhou port basic It is flat, compared with Tianjin Port 600717, and the stock bar is 50 yuan/ton higher.

operating:

1, the US soybean 11 period price depends on the 10-day line shock operation. Due to the lack of Lido theme, even the soybean meal followed the shock, it is expected that the above 2750 is difficult to break through, maintaining the 40-day line of empty operation ideas. The vegetable meal is still entangled in the short-term moving average, and it is recommended to rely on 40-line aerial operation. Yesterday, most of the beans oscillated around 3790, and the night plate regained 3800. At present, there are fewer yin and yang, and the short-term moving average still has pressure. It is recommended to hold empty orders.

2, yesterday, the palm oil 12 contract was closed near the 20th line, due to the three-yin form, the price has gained a lot of pressure on the top 2800. Even the palm oil slowed down near the 10-day line of the 5700. It is recommended to operate on the 5-day line. Even soybean oil stayed on the 40-day line and temporarily maintained a volatile pattern. The vegetable oil fluctuated within a narrow range, and the day relied on the 10-day line to operate the water.

Energy and Chemical Review

Tianjiao: Hujiao night plate shock consolidation, RU1711 contract closed at 12645, January contract closed at 15115, 1805 closed at 15485, 1809 closed at 15670, the current 11, 1 spread 2470, 1, 5 spread 370, 5, 9 spread 185. In the news, as of September 19, rubber inventories in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone fell by about 8%, about 163,000 tons, to about 187,000 tons. Specifically, natural rubber stocks fell the most, reaching double digits. Synthetic rubber rubber stocks showed an upward trend, but synthetic rubber stocks such as styrene-butadiene and cis-butene all declined slightly. Thai raw material market, Hat Ya USS price 51.88 baht / kg (-0.4), tobacco tablets 53.78 baht / kg (+0.5), cup rubber 43.5 baht / kg (+0), glue 50.5 baht / kg (-1). The domestic raw material market Yunnan glue 12.1 (+0) yuan / kg, rubber block 11.2 (+0) yuan / kg, Hainan private glue 12.2 (-0.4) yuan / kg. In terms of finished products, the domestic spot price is 1580-1590 (+15) USD/ton, the domestic cargo price is 1610-1620 (+10) USD/ton, the US dollar cigarette spot price is 1780-1800 (+10) USD/ton, Singapore ship The price of goods is 1630-1650 (+20) USD/ton, the price of Thai factory cargo is 1650-1670 (+20) USD/ton, the price of Vietnam 3L glue is 12800-12900 (+100) Yuan/ton, RMB mixed glue 12500- 12600 (+100) yuan / ton. In terms of synthetic rubber, the price of Huadong Qiluding Benzene 1502 is 12700-13100 (-400) yuan/ton, and the price of Huadong Daqing Petrochemical is 13000-13100 (-300) yuan/ton. The price difference between Hujiao and Nikko is 370 USD, the outer sheet of tobacco is 1830-1850 (+20) USD/ton, the spread of Hujiao and imported US dollar cigarettes is -1207 yuan/ton, and the import window of tobacco is closed. The price difference between Japan's main rubber and Singapore's standard rubber was 398 US dollars/ton. Thai raw material prices have been mixed, spot prices have risen slightly, and synthetic rubber continues to fall. Southeast Asia is about to enter the peak season of supply. The high price difference has also made this year's arbitrage volume very large. At present, the spread of convergent arbitrage discs has increased. After October, the purchasing intention of tire factories has weakened. Hujiao is difficult to change its weakness in the long run. 1, 9 positive set price difference has been partially returned, you can consider moving the January position to May or September (1, 5 spreads over 400 can be moved to May), if the spread after the return does not consider the sale can be 1 The monthly position moved to November, one can lock in profits, and the other is to move back to January if the spread rebounds.

LL: L1801 fluctuated widely throughout the day, falling 0.26% to close at 9730, coal chemical bidding price of 9450, futures premium spot of 280 points, and 15 price difference currently 65. In terms of overhaul, the large-scale installation and maintenance of the previous period was basically resumed. Shenhua Xinjiang’s 270,000-ton high-pressure installation was temporarily parked on July 22, and the vehicle was produced at 2,426H last night. Zhongtian Hechuang 300,000 tons of LL equipment was parked on July 20. Shenhua Baotou 300,000 tons of full-density device began to be shut down for maintenance on September 12, and it is estimated that the parking inspection will last for about 15 days. In terms of new production capacity, the new olefin plant of Shenhua Ning coal-to-liquids project was started on September 8th, and the naphtha cracking was successful. It is expected that ethylene monomer will be launched on September 11-12, and downstream polymerization will be started near September 15. The device is expected to produce polyethylene near the end of September. The latest petrochemical stocks were 750,000 tons, a significant increase. The supply side, close to delivery, the LL registered warehouse receipts of Dashang LL is about 55,000 tons, and the recent basis is narrowed, and the previous admission vouchers are shipped in large quantities, which is a bad one. The downstream operating rate has steadily increased, and the operating rate of agricultural film has reached 48%. In the short term, the environmental impact has not been completely eliminated. When the market callback ends, downstream demand becomes the key to solving the inventory of the lake. In the early stage, the short position continued to be held, and investors who did not enter the market suggested to wait and see. For arbitrage, it is recommended to consider the L-PP1801 contract.

PP: PP1801 fell 0.14% to close at 8848, Shenhua bid price was 8720, and PP15 spread closed at 17. The latest operating rate of powder increased to 61.27%, the mainstream transaction in East China was 8600-8800 yuan / ton, and the price difference of grain was 100. In terms of overhaul, Changzhou Fude 300,000 tons PP device has no clear driving time. The Shenhua Baotou Coal Chemical Project PP plant (300,000 tons/year) produces L5E89. The manufacturer is expected to start parking for about 15 days on September 12. The Pucheng clean energy PP unit (400,000 tons/year) was originally planned to be overhauled around September 10 and is now postponed until mid-to-late October. The total capacity of the two lines of Datang International Duolun Coal Chemical PP Plant is 460,000 tons/year. It will be shut down for maintenance from September 11 and is expected to last for 30 days. Zhongtian Hechuang PP loop pipe installation (350,000 tons/year) On September 12, due to the low storage of propylene tanks and new capacity for temporary parking, the new olefin plant of Shenhua Ning coal-to-liquids project was put into trial production on September 8. The naphtha cracking was successful. It is expected that the propylene monomer will be opened on September 11-12, and the downstream polymerization unit will be opened near September 15. It is expected that polypropylene will be produced near the end of September. On the supply side, the registered warehouse receipts of the Taishang Institute PP are about 50,000 tons, and the pre-entry insurance covers are shipped in large quantities, which is a bad one. When the market callback ends, downstream demand becomes the key. At present, the downstream operating rate has remained stable and there has not been any substantial improvement. However, the environmental impact will not eliminate the downstream demand, only the demand will be post-installed, and the later operating rate will continue to rise. In terms of arbitrage, LL welcomes the peak season of shed film demand, and PP new capacity is more than LL in the second half of the year. It is recommended to consider doing more L-PP1801 contract, the current price difference is 882, lower than the historical average price difference of 1056 in the past year. In the early stage, the short position continued to be held, and investors who did not enter the market suggested to wait and see.

Methanol: The focus of the methanol port market is moving upwards, the inland market is partially higher, the game between the low inventory of the factory and the high inventory of local downstream raw materials is expected to be a short-term regional market trend in the short-term, the Brunei installation is scheduled to stop and the documents of the Maritime Bureau are Worried that the market is divided over long and short, it is expected that the port market will not fall easily. In terms of spot price, the spot transaction in Jiangyin and Changzhou was around 2820 yuan/ton, the spot transaction in Zhangjiagang was around 2810-2820 yuan/ton, the transaction in Nantong area was around 2840-2850 yuan/ton, and the transaction in Ningbo area was around 2870-2890 yuan/ton. The focus of the South China market is higher. The mainstream transaction in the Guangdong market is 2,900-29,100 yuan/ton. The trading volume is generally low, and the Fujian area has less offer. From a technical point of view, KD converges, but the Bollinger Band has a high pressure on the trajectory. The short-term focus on whether it can stand. Once it is stable, it is expected to start a rebound, otherwise it will continue to be weak. It is recommended to lay a small number of orders on the operation.

Early review of non-ferrous metals

copper

The Shanghai copper night plate has a slight correction. Due to the slowdown of China's economic data, Shanghai copper fell for 8 consecutive trading days, with a strong support of 50,000 integer points, and short-term prices are expected to support the rebound. Last week, LME copper stocks continued to surge to more than 300,000 tons, which has risen more than 40% since the beginning of September, putting pressure on the market. Previously, China restricted the import of seven categories of waste. In July, the volume of scrap copper imports fell by 15.45% month-on-month, and the import volume may decline further. The supply of raw materials is still tight. The demand for downstream power grids and home appliances has maintained rapid growth. As copper prices continue to fall back, downstream demand for replenishment is still increasing. At present, it is dragged down by the surrounding metals, and the upward trend of the weekly line has not yet broken. It is recommended to do more on dips.

aluminum

Shanghai aluminum night plate opened higher and consolidated, compared with the surrounding metal trend. Due to the high price of thermal coal and alumina, the cost support of aluminum ingots has increased. In Shandong Province, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, there are a total of 4.56 million tons of electrolytic aluminum illegal production capacity, while China has ordered 28 cities to limit production of electrolytic aluminum and alumina by 30% during the heating season. The total capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 17.48 million tons, accounting for 40.35% of the country's total production capacity. In the later period of environmental protection and limited production, the progress of new capacity production will slow down due to compliance indicators. It should be noted that the domestic spot market has not improved, and the inventory continues to be high to historical highs. The bulls are expected to have limited upside momentum after release.

Zinc

The Shanghai Zinc 24200 first-line support is effective, and the night plate is opened lower. Recently, the import window of zinc ingots will open, and the future imports will remain high, which will put some pressure on domestic prices. China's zinc production continued to decline in July and August, and fell 4.6% year-on-year to 494,000 tons in August. In August, some local mining enterprises and refineries have restricted production and shut down, and the supply side has declined overall. The mine is converted to refined zinc. Stocks in the two cities fell to historical lows, and domestic social inventories continued to decrease to around 100,000 tons. The support under the zinc price is strong. After the callback stabilizes, it is recommended to do more on the dips.

nickel

The Shanghai nickel night plate opened higher and rose the most. Upstream Indonesian mine exports may not be as expected, and in October the Philippines' main nickel-producing areas entered the rainy season, the domestic spot market fell, and nickel-mineral port stocks began to decline in demand for ferronickel. Downstream stainless steel stocks also returned to low levels, steel mills profit and demand expectations will improve to provide some support for nickel prices. However, LME and the inventory in the previous period are still at a high level, which puts pressure on nickel prices. The short-term sustained decline has released high risk, and the 60-day moving average support is strong. It is recommended to wait and see, and the mid-line still has upward momentum.

The above comments were provided by Li Xiaodong, Zhou Yifang, Bian Shuyang, Xu Yuyin, Wang Zeyong, Feng Xiao, Sheng Wenyu, He Lin, Liu Bingxin.

(Editor: Shao Yidi HF116)

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