Source: Shen Wan Strategy
Dream of flying in March, down to earth in April
January and April are the verification period for the economy and performance. In March, the dream can be released, but in April, it still needs to be down to earth.
March is the last window period when the fundamental signals are relatively scarce at the beginning of the year, and it is also the window period for the reform expectations to be intensively fulfilled. Therefore, the expected reforms in March and the liquidity looseness in the post-spring period drive short-term risk appetite, and the profit-making effect in the direction of growth has spread significantly, and there has been a general increase. The strength of the GEM also confirms the core view of our 2018 strategy "Growing also has a leading". The recently recommended medical biology, national defense military and education have also achieved significant relative returns. But April is the verification period for economic and performance growth, and the core focus of the market will inevitably return to the signal verification. Therefore, in March, you can release your dreams, but in April you still need to be down-to-earth. The differentiation will be the theme of April.
Table 1: Validation period of economic and performance growth in April, the core focus of the market will be regression signal verification
Source: wind Shenwan Hong source 000166, attending Shares'
In April's market judgment, we still suggest that there may be a combination of “performance growth and cash flow downside + risk-free interest rate downside space limitedâ€, with limited total opportunities, with fundamental signals to drive differentiation opportunities. (1) The year-on-year decline of PP I led to the downward growth of A-share non-financial petroleum and petrochemical profits. This trend has been verified in the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises in January-February, with 21% in 2017 and 2018 in 2018. 16% in February. Therefore, the performance of non-financial petroleum and petrochemical quarterly reports may also be lower than the annual report.
Figure 1: PPI declines driving January-February industrial enterprise profit growth continues downward, indicating that non-financial petroleum and petrochemical quarterly results may be lower than the annual report
Data map
Stock price numerators (performance growth) fell back, while the fallback of the denominator (risk-free rate) may be blocked. The central bank continued the policy orientation of “cutting the peaks and filling the valley†in terms of the supply of basic money, but the resumption of production of the entity was gradually realized. In the case of overall supply stability, the increase in capital demand made the upward channel of short-end interest rates gradually clear.
Figure 2: Open market operations are still guided by “shaving peaks and valleysâ€. With the advancement of resumption of production, the interbank market may gradually return to tight balance.
Data map
In the inter-bank market, the liquidity environment has not been further improved. The tide of anti-rising demand for superimposed trade wars and the long-term Sino-US spread are in a relatively low background. The space for risk-free interest rates will fall in the short term. In addition, the content of the new regulations for asset management is basically in line with market neutral expectations, and the short-term market impact is limited. However, in the mid-term implementation, the impact on transaction friction in the interbank market is still worth observing.
Figure 3: The short-end interest rate uptrend channel is gradually clear, and the long-end interest rate rebounds.
Data map
Therefore, in April, there may be a combination of “performance growth and cash flow downside + risk-free interest rate downside space limitationâ€, and the stock pricing angle is still “weak marketâ€.
Second, before discussing the short-term style trend, you need to see the medium and long-term style: the medium and long-term is still growing back!
The current market is most concerned with short-term style judgments, but before discussing short-term styles, you need to see the medium- and long-term style first. Looking at the medium and long term, we still believe that growth is the dominant style in 2018. This judgment is mainly based on 4-point logic:
(1) The overall probability of the GEM 2018 quarterly report is better than that of the 2017 annual report (the annual report is lower than expected for the quarterly report to release the performance release space; the annual report accrues the goodwill impairment, but the quarterly report cannot be accrued), while the A share overall In the 2018 quarterly report, the probability is lower than the 2017 annual report. The short-term performance trend of the GEM is better than that of the non-financial petroleum and petrochemical industry.
(2) The long-term outlook of Zhongxiao Chuang is good. Although there is a high degree of uncertainty in the judgment of the overall performance trend of the 2018 GEM, the long-term outlook for growth performance growth is optimistic with the breakthrough and deepening of 5G applications in 2019 and 2020.
(3) From the perspective of relative performance trends, the conditions for growth in 2018 are relatively broad. As long as the ROE of the main board is no longer rising in 2018, the ROE of the GEM is no longer falling, and the GEM is relative to The non-financial performance trend of the main board will dominate.
Figure 4: Under the ROE constant assumption, the performance of the GEM (non-Lex Wen) relative to the CSI 300 (non-financial) will regain the upward trend
Data map
(4) Institutional investors are still at a low level for the allocation of small and medium-sized enterprises. Here are two observations: First, in the recent empty window period of important meetings and political events, the performance of growth and decline has been shown, indicating the value of institutional investors. The demand for warehouse growth is relatively strong. Second, when the risk appetite is lowered recently, the growth callback is still less than the value. This indicates that institutional investors cherish the growth of the chips (the growth position is lower than the target level), while the value and low valuation positions have not yet lowered to the target level.
Third, to see the medium and long-term trend of "growth return", do not ignore the contradictions accumulated after the short-term general growth. In the next two weeks, the value-added excess returns will be repaired. The growth will continue to differentiate during the performance verification period, and the direction of the fundamental trend will be the strongest. Therefore, in the first quarter, the trend of the best segmentation in growth may gradually increase. Drive the style of reinforcement.
Recently, there are more and more investors who can grow and see “long and shortâ€. In our analytical framework, “seeing long and short†really helps us find the strongest direction in the short term, but it must also be combined with relatively cost-effective. Discussion, when the profit-making effect is excessively spread, the stock price may have largely reflected the mid- and long-term optimistic expectations. At this time, it is necessary to be alert to the short-term recurrence of the market. We suggest that you should see the medium- and long-term trends of “growth return†and ignore the contradictions accumulated after the short-term general growth.
Our GEM consolidated strength against the CSI 300 has returned to 82%, close to the high level before 2016. This aspect shows that the optimistic expectation of the GEM is relatively close to that of the CSI 300. The relative probability that the GEM's relative returns are positive (such as tax cuts and other reforms) is gradually passivated. On the other hand, it also shows that the market has returned to a relatively optimistic state for the medium and long-term outlook of the GEM (the position of the upper and lower thresholds in our view is an indicator reflecting the medium and long-term outlook).
Figure 5: The GEM effect of the GEM relative to the CSI 300 is relatively high
Data map
From the perspective of the diffusion indicators of various industries, the growth direction is higher, but it is not at an absolute high level, while the value and low valuation sectors are at an absolute low level. Therefore, only the quantitative indicators are observed, and the short-term value rebounds. The possibility of growth follow-up cannot be ruled out.
Table 2: The diffusion index in the growth direction is higher, but it is not at an absolute high level, and the value and low valuation are at an absolute low level.
Data map
The short-term contradiction in the growth direction is mainly reflected in two aspects: (1) The performance verification period is close at hand, and the disclosure deadlines for the small and medium-sized board and the GEM report are March 31 and April 10, respectively. On April 10th, we will be able to obtain an effective sample of the growth rate of the quarterly report. Although the overall performance of the GEM is expected to be better than the annual report in the first quarter, after the general increase, whether the growth performance growth can be “universal†in line with expectations is the key point for verification. At present, there is still greater uncertainty.
In addition, the small and medium-sized board report will be disclosed in the full sample on April 30. The outlook for the second quarter of the growth direction will also be clear. This will be the time to initially verify the growth trend of the medium-term performance. The growth direction is short-term and long-term. The certainty is strong, but the direction of certainty in the mid-term is critical, and the specific verification is crucial.
Table 3: GEM quarterly report will be disclosed before April 10
Data map
(2) The short-term growth direction of the transaction has been relatively crowded, and the contradiction of the microstructure is worthy of vigilance. We have seen that the proportion of computer and medical transactions and the proportion of the two transactions have returned to historical highs, and the national defense industry has also achieved significant growth despite not reaching a high level. In contrast, banks have returned to the current relatively low level from the highs at the end of January.
Figure 6: The proportion of the transaction amount of the computer and the amount of the transaction amount of the two transactions have returned to historical highs.
Data map
Figure 7: The proportion of the transaction amount of medical organisms and the proportion of the two financial transactions have returned to historical highs.
Figure 8: The proportion of the transaction volume of the defense industry and the proportion of the two transactions are significantly higher.
Figure 9: The proportion of the bank's transaction amount and the amount of the two financial transactions returned from the high level at the end of January to a relatively low level.
Data map
Based on the above analysis, we believe that in the April performance verification period, the value-added excess returns will be repaired in the next two weeks. The growth will continue to differentiate during the performance verification period, and the direction of the fundamental trend will be the strongest, so look at the quarter and grow. The trend of the best subdivision direction may be gradually enhanced to promote the style enhancement.
Fourth, the growth rate of performance is expected to rise quarter by quarter + the low valuation of the economy is still the focus of the current configuration.
Last week, we made clear the core idea of ​​the current industry comparison: Since the overall performance trend is the first quarter high and the quarterly downward, as long as the performance growth rate is not high in the first quarter, at least one stage is the relative economy. Dominant, the best of these is definitely the direction of growth in performance is expected to rise quarter by quarter. Recently, based on this logic, we have successfully grasped the investment opportunities of medical biology and defense industry. Banks, trade and textile and clothing leaders, professional engineering and ecological gardening in the architectural decoration are also expected to rise in the direction of the quarter by season. These sectors are the key direction of the value of the bottom warehouse. In addition, we continue to suggest investment opportunities in the low valuation sector. In addition to the year-round banks with good prosperity (the first-order defenses), we also focus on investment opportunities for real estate and brokerages.
I. Key industry evaluation
The new logic of real estate investment under the dual-track system - the construction of the leasing market and the transformation of the shantytowns
l Investment is no longer linked to sales. “Building and purchasing, shed reform, and city policy†will build a new blueprint for real estate dual-track system. With the continuous development of the long-term mechanism of the real estate market, the old logic linking development investment with real estate sales has been gradually broken. The phenomenon is that the first and second lines are “rental and purchase†and the third and fourth line “shed reformâ€. Differentiation in the stage of market development. In this context, this article will focus on the prediction of future investment and sales of the industry in combination with the long-term mechanism of real estate.
l Two major characteristics indicate that the real estate dual-track system is imperative: from the second-hand housing-new housing market, first- and second-tier cities are accelerating into the stock market, and adequate second-hand housing responds to the demanding college students, standardizing the rental market, and implementing rental sales. The same power is of great significance to the healthy development of the real estate market in hot cities. From the perspective of urbanization, the third- and fourth-tier cities are still in the stage of accelerating urbanization. In 2011-2016, the proportion of new urban population in the province is about 80%. The number of high-scale sheds is behind the number of agricultural transfer populations and the ascendant. The urbanization process will continue to dominate the new home sales market in the long run.
l It is estimated that 18 years of housing leasing will drive new construction of 1.0% and development investment of 1.9%. Rural land and stocks will bring new opportunities. Since 2015, China has actively developed the leasing market. Through the development of multi-channels such as renting and selling the same rights, cultivating large-scale leasing enterprises, promoting financial innovation such as REITS, and exploring rural collective construction land leasing pilots, the policy concept can be summarized as “ Wide coverage, digging stocks, financial support." The housing leasing sector affects the development and investment of first- and second-tier cities and the three dimensions of new construction: lease land to reduce land acquisition fees, rural land reform to bring incremental land supply, and inventory reform to boost development investment, which will drive a new start in 2010 by 1.0%. The development investment amount is 1.9%. Among them, the proportion of land leased in first- and second-tier cities has increased, the land for ordinary commercial housing has been reduced, and the land acquisition fee has been reduced. The rural collective land construction leases housing with Beijing and Guangzhou as the main battlefields, and 13 first- and second-tier cities are the first in 18-19 years. In the pilot period; the inventory transformation will drive the construction and decoration and home appliances and other upstream and downstream, the improvement of future fire protection standards, housing acceptance and other aspects will speed up the transformation progress, and the follow-up policy is expected to exceed expectations. From the point of view of the capital supply side, the major banks provide more than 3 trillion credit lines for housing leasing companies in first- and second-tier cities, and sufficient funds for the next 3-5 years.
l Guiding significance for real estate investment: First- and second-tier cities pay attention to investment opportunities brought about by stock reform and rural land reform. The transformation and upgrading of the stock market by the rental housing enterprises will drive the upstream and downstream industries such as home appliances and buildings, and the rural land will be added to the market. The long-term rental apartment industry provides low-cost land, and the completion of national real estate development investment is expected to exceed expectations; attention to the shed reform and urbanization of the third- and fourth-tier cities, and the progress of citizenization, for the provinces with large urbanization space and lag in the process of citizenization in the future In the line cities, the shed improvement process is expected to continue, and the new housing market will rise steadily; to prevent the urbanization of some cities from reaching the peak, the real estate market will face downside risks after the sheds shrink.
(Contact: Wang Sheng / Peng Ziheng / Gong Zhenghuan / Cao Yifan)
The localization process of semiconductor materials is accelerating, and high-purity target enterprises are welcoming opportunities. The fourth series of Nuggets faucets: Jiangfeng Electronics 300666, diagnostic stocks (76.450, 6.95, 10.00%), Ashu 300706, and diagnostic stocks (79.280, 5.25, 7.09%)
l High purity / ultra high purity target is the key to achieve sputter coating. The mainstream PVD coating technology mainly includes sputter coating and vacuum evaporation. Sputter coating is mainly used for coating large-area substrate materials. Evaporation coating is mainly used for coating small-sized substrate materials. Target is the key to realize PVD coating, and the target is The purity directly determines the quality and performance of the final electronic device or optical component. Therefore, purification and purity control are the key to target manufacturing. Generally, high purity, high density, uniform composition and structure, and small grain size are required. At present, the purity of sputtering target products is generally 4-6N.
l The upstream high-purity metal materials have long been monopolized in the US, Japan and Germany, and domestic manufacturers are trying to find a breakthrough. High-purity sputtering targets are emerging with the development of the semiconductor industry. The US and Japanese companies closely control the core technologies, master the industry's leading power, and the regional concentration of the global semiconductor industry has created the same degree of aggregation of sputtering target companies. Higher. The downstream areas include semiconductors, flat panel displays, solar energy 000591, diagnostic stocks (4.750, 0.03, 0.64%) LOW-E glass, etc., and the global target market scale is growing rapidly. The sputtering target industry has benefited from the rapid development of downstream such as flat panel displays, semiconductors, solar cells, magneto-optical recording media, optical components, etc. In 2016, the global sputtering target market was about 11.36 billion US dollars, and will exceed 16.3 billion by 2019. USD, CAGR reached 13%.
l Due to long-term dependence on imports, the demand for localization of target production is becoming more and more urgent, and localization will be accelerated. National industrial investment funds, various policy support, semiconductor industry chain including materials, etc. will make rapid progress, and the current localization rate of materials is higher. Low, from the national will level, there is also an urgent need to achieve localization. In recent years, the domestic panel and semiconductor industry has developed rapidly. Under the efforts of Jiangfeng Electronics and Ashishi, domestic enterprises have made breakthroughs in target production technology and market. Domestic leading enterprises have entered the core customer industry chain. in.
l Investment suggestion: With the continuous listing of such emerging materials companies, the sputtering target field focuses on Jiangfeng Electronics (the largest domestic manufacturer of sputtering target for semiconductor chips, achieving a breakthrough from 0 to 1) and Ashridge (Integrated PVD coating material manufacturer), pay attention to the research and development of new materials 600206, diagnostic stocks (10.660, 0.97, 10.01%) (with Yan Yijin: the largest metal target industrial base in China, participated in many national projects), Long China Energy Savings 300263, Diagnostics (6.110, 0.56, 10.09%) (Sifeng Electronics, Jinglian Photoelectric: Molybdenum Target, ITO Target Domestic Leading Enterprise)
(Contact: Ren Muhua / Ma Xiaotian)
The third series of hotel cycle theory report: the exploration of housing price improvement and light assetization
l The periodic analysis framework under the balance of supply and demand is more reasonable. The continuous decline of China's ADR in the past few years is the reconstruction of the price system. For leisure guests, the price of star-rated hotels in China has accounted for nearly 50% of the travel expenses. The hotel supply is biased towards the mid-to-high end and is out of line with the income structure of the residents at that time. This demand gap is made up. Since the end of 2014, the supply growth rate has entered a low single-digit range, and the supply and demand structure has begun to balance. China's hotel industry has officially switched from “unilateral supply growth†to “state of supply and demand dynamicsâ€. Therefore, the supply and demand analysis within the new round of cycles is effective, and the price of the hotel will also enter the upward channel that fits the level of economic development in this cycle.
The core of lADR (average house price) growth is not a simple comparison of cycles, but economic development, focusing on the macro indicators and the carrying capacity of prices. From a macro perspective, our empirical study deduce the quantitative relationship between housing prices and economic indicators: as long as there is no economic stagflation (CPI%> GDP%), we believe that the growth rate of ADR in the hotel industry is basically stable under the new cycle of stable supply and demand structure. CPI growth rate and GDP growth rate. The upper limit is subject to the macroeconomic development environment, and the lower limit depends on the upward pressure on the cost side and the return on investment. According to the data verification of the US hotel industry, we also found that the ADR growth rate is closer to the CPI lower limit, so we expect the ADR growth of China's hotel industry to be between 4-5% this year. From a micro perspective, the structural optimization brought about by the upgrade of the business is the price increase. The difference between budget hotel facilities and services is small, and they will compete in a narrow price range. The price increase in the region is more difficult. For medium and high-end hotels, the logic of core ADR comes from the format itself and further consumers. accept. In the same area, the ceiling of a hotel with a price increase is higher than that of a hotel with a higher grade, so the price of each grade hotel is “popularâ€, and the average house price rise is long-term sustainable.
l The time and space for hotel chain improvement is sufficient, and the quality of the store (middle-end upgrade) can promote the growth of ADR. The addition of franchise stores basically does not increase the expenses of the hotel group, the marginal cost is very low, the speed of joining the store is increased, and the growth of the franchise management fee income can be actively promoted, which is equivalent to risk-free leverage, and the market has significant flexibility for this part. underestimate. The domestic branding rate is very different from the international one. Under the “property>brand†model, brand owners need to actively promote and persuade the owners to choose branding, so the branding of the whole industry will definitely be a stable and long-term process. It will be accompanied by a gradual increase in ROE and a gradual weakening trend. From the current chain of circumstances, the mid- to high-end market concentration is higher than the economy, mainly due to its higher management requirements and quality control, we believe that the branding of high-end hotels will run through this cycle. Therefore, we need to pay more attention to the year-on-year increase in quantity and quality.
l Still emphasizes that the factor that really determines the valuation interval is the marginal change of RevPAR growth rate, and the improvement of the transmission mechanism needs to grasp the upside period. Differentiated pricing power and light asset chaining are important ways for the hotel industry to control the price and avoidance cycle. The business model of other cycle industries is difficult to imitate, which is also the reason why the hotel industry has higher valuation than other cycle industries. The exact top and bottom of the hotel cycle are as unpredictable as the macroeconomic cycle, even though the comparison between China and the US cannot be verified because of many variables. Therefore, it is more important to be able to judge the upward (or falling) trend and range of the industry in the next 1-2 years based on the existing economic indicators and the direction of the hotel development, thus corresponding to the reasonable valuation level of the industry. What we need to grasp is the comprehensive recovery phase in the industry's rising period. If RevPAR is still rising in the later period, but the growth rate is slowing down, the valuation of the corresponding industry will also decline. Suggested attention: China Lodging Hotel, First Travel Hotel 600258, diagnostic stock (28.800, -0.58, -1.97%).
(Contact: Liu Lewen / Yu Jiaqi)
Second, the evaluation of key stocks
Qiaqia food 002557, attending stocks depth: face marginal improvement, double-click on the layout of the market
l At the current time, the company is a company with fundamental improvement prospects and valuation safety margins: 1) The fundamental marginal improvement is clear: the old products stop falling + the new product volume, driving the income growth rate to improve, we expect the income of 2018-19 The growth rate is expected to climb to more than 10%, the fastest period since listing. At the same time, the company's old product upgrade has been completed, we expect the company's profitability will be accompanied by improved revenue. 2) The margin of valuation security is prominent: the income growth rate of suppressing the company's valuation level has been expected to improve significantly since the listing. The company's valuation is below the historical center, and the latest closing price is less than 20xPE in 2018.
l Fundamental improvement expectations: The upgrading of the main business structure of the melon seeds and the firm layout of the nut categories are expected to break the bottleneck of income growth. Since the listing, Qiaqiu has faced a relatively obvious bottleneck in revenue growth. In 2011-2017, the company's revenue CAGR was only 4.63%. The core reasons for the lack of income growth are: 1) The melon seed industry is relatively mature. In the process of consumption upgrading, the packaging rate of melon seeds has not been improved, and the growth of the main industry is weak. 2) Due to the relatively conservative market strategy, the category expansion outside the main business of melon seeds is not eye-catching. However, we believe that the bottleneck of the company's revenue growth in 2018-19 is expected to be broken, mainly due to: 1) Blue bag pecan taste series melon seeds lead the upgrade of melon seeds, and in 2009 realized tax-included sales of 550 million, an increase of 120%. 2) Daily nut products have become an important breakthrough in the category of nuts. After the company was officially launched in May 2017, the annual tax-included sales amounted to 180 million.
l Fundamental improvement expectations 2: Profitability is expected to improve simultaneously. 1) The pressure on the decline of gross profit margin has been alleviated: In 2017, the company upgraded the raw materials of traditional melon seeds, which caused the company's gross profit margin to continue to decline in the relatively low base in 2016. At present, the upgrade of the company's traditional melon seeds has been completed. The purchase price of sunflower seeds in the new season is basically the same as last year. The pressure on the company's gross profit margin is expected to ease in 2018. 2) The expenses are basically controllable: the daily nut series products are still in the promotion period, and the increase in sales support expenses also reflects the promotion determination. However, along with the good performance of the company's revenue side, the overall sales expense ratio still has a small room for decline.
l Earnings forecast and investment suggestion: We believe that the continuous increase of the blue bag series of melon seeds and daily nuts is a concentrated expression of the company's internal reform dividend. We expect the company to achieve revenues of 3.594 billion, 4.19 billion and 4.727 billion in 2017-19, up 2.3%, 16.6% and 12.8% respectively; net profit of 318 million, 387 million and 447 million respectively, up 10% year-on-year. 22% and 15%, the corresponding EPS are 0.63 yuan, 0.76 yuan and 0.88 yuan respectively. With reference to the valuation of comparable companies, we maintain a target price of 21 yuan for the next year, corresponding to 18 years of 27xPE, maintaining a Buy rating.
l Catalyst for stock price performance: core product growth exceeded expectations, overseas market expansion rate exceeded expectations
l Core hypothetical risk: lower than expected performance, food safety incidents
(Contact: Lu Chang / Zhang Wei)
Than sound Leuven 002,832, shares depth diagnosis: the scarcity of high-speed endogenous growth targets, holiday clothing to create the first brand
The company accurately locates high-end fashion sportswear, with an average store efficiency growth rate of 15%-20%, which is a rare endogenous high growth target in the industry. 1) On the consumer side, accurate positioning is widely sought after, and the store effect is steadily improving. High-end fashion sportswear is very scarce in the current clothing market, and the company's products are strongly recognized by middle- and high-income consumers. During the 15-16 years, the overall consumption of clothing was sluggish, and the store's store effect continued to rise against the trend. The average store efficiency growth rate in 17 years was as high as 15%-20%. 2) In terms of shopping mall channels, the rate declines the brand's bargaining power. The company's channel structure accounted for about 60% of high-end shopping malls, ranking first in the sales of the same floor brands in a large number of high-end shopping malls. In the past three years, the operating expense ratio of direct-operated stores has continued to decline, the support of shopping malls has been strong, the store area has continued to expand, and the regional location has been continuously optimized. 3) For dealers, orders are actively and highly recognized. The company's advance receipts/operating income indicators have been at the forefront of the industry for many years, and dealers are optimistic about product sales and bookings. 17Q3 company's advance receipts increased by 42.3% over the same period. The 18th spring and summer product orders are expected to usher in a good start.
For many years, the company has adhered to the "three highs and one new" positioning and concentrating on cultivating, creating high-quality brand power and creating a stable foundation for sustained growth. 1) Deeply cultivated products with high brand recognition. The company adheres to the concept of “high quality, high grade, high technology and constant innovationâ€. In terms of design, the core design team is stable and the original design ability is excellent. On the product side, the fabric characteristics, clothing technology and other details are constantly innovated; Proportional R&D investment, the moat is obvious. 2) Multi-dimensional, targeted customer service enhancements. The company has held many consumer experience activities such as stylist matching and building a membership system to deeply meet consumer demand and enhance the membership rate. 3) All-in-one combination marketing to increase exposure. The company's marketing methods in the golf field are flexible and efficient, and have accumulated a professional brand image. In the near future, combined with the emerging trend, Yang Shuo and Jiang Yiyan joined hands with “Small Bags†to promote a “healthy, sunny, confident†lifestyle; implanted the hit drama “Mr. Love†to highlight a healthy lifestyle; sponsored La Liga to host a fashion show Showcasing the vitality of the holiday travel series, the marketing activities are fully rolled out.
Targeting the billion-dollar holiday travel apparel market, it is time to enter the blue ocean. 1) The demand for holiday travel clothing has arisen. China's tourism consumption has maintained a double-digit growth trend in recent years, reaching a trillion level. Consumers' demand for tourism experience continues to increase, and “sightseeing tourism†has shifted to “leisure tourism†and “experience tourismâ€. Under this trend, we expect China's holiday travel apparel industry to have about 797 billion yuan in market space. 2) Accurate cut-in to meet the needs of segmentation. The new series of products of Biyinlefen meet the three core needs of the “function, design and camera effect, family experience and warmth experience†of the market segment, and it is expected to become the first Lenovo apparel brand with the theme of holiday tourism. 3) Refer to the FILA benchmarking, the new series has strong potential. The main brand of Anta has undergone adjustment in the past seven years, and the number of main brand stores has continued to decrease. The new brands and new products have coincided with the development of the current time, which has promoted the growth of the overall number of stores and revenue. We believe that the current series of the original Leifen is in a rising period, and the expansion of the holiday travel apparel series coincides with the time. After two years of preparation, it is expected to provide new development momentum for the company.
The company adheres to the positioning of “three highs and one new†and actively promotes the strategic layout combining high-end and segmentation, and is expected to maintain steady growth for a long time. The company is a leader in high-end sports and leisure apparel in China. It is scarce in A-shares. We believe that the company's original series of brand strength is strong, store opening and store efficiency growth is good, and the new series positioning blue ocean market has huge growth potential. We raise the company's profit forecast. It is estimated that the EPS of 17-20 years is 1.6/2.3/3.1/4.2 yuan (the original EPS of 17-19 years is 1.6/2.2/2.8 yuan), corresponding to 35/25/19/14 times of 17-20 years PE, maintaining " Overweight" rating.
(Contact: Wang Liping / Chen Zeren)
3. Other important reports related to the stock market
Discrimination of the new interest rate increase: Is the “last mile†of interest rate transmission smooth? ——The fourth series of liquidity report in 2018
Conclusion or investment advice:
On March 22, 2018, the central bank raised the benchmark rate of reverse repurchase by 5 basis points after December last year. We reiterate that in the context of interest rate liberalization, China has already entered a rate hike cycle. How to add and when to add is a more accurate issue. The new interest rate hike, which focuses on adjusting the operating rate of the open market, will still replace the old interest rate hike, which is based on adjusting the benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans. The Fed rate hike will provide a better time window for the central bank. It is expected that there will still be room for new interest rate hikes during the year. 15-20 bp.
Reason and logic:
If we think from institutional logic and dynamic perspective, the old rate hike is actually an expedient measure. Regardless of the choice of policy interest rates from major overseas economies, or from the direction of policy interest rate and benchmark interest rates in China's interest rate marketization process, the old interest rate hike is actually in the case that China's interest rate marketization is not perfect enough. The expedient measure, in the end, it is only a matter of time before it withdraws from the historical stage. It is the future trend and inevitable that the new interest rate increase will replace the old interest rate hike. From this perspective, the logical basis for determining how the central bank will raise interest rates is not limited to the judgment of fundamentals, but also includes the judgment of China's interest rate marketization process and the efficiency of policy interest rate transmission.
China's interest rate transmission has sprinted from the "last mile" into the "last 100 meters" sprint. In September 2014, the central bank announced a 14-day repurchase rate of 20 bp. At that time, we pointed out that China's interest rate transmission still has a "last mile" situation, so the reduction of the repo rate does not mean that the deposit and loan benchmark interest rate will not be lowered. We still adopt the research framework at that time, and refer to the social financial statistics to divide the financial system into five major types of financing channels, and to test the correlation coefficient and causality between the indicators, while focusing on the trend around 2014. Changes are analyzed. We find that the most important change at present is that the policy interest rate represented by the open market operating instrument interest rate has significantly improved the transmission effect of the credit market, but the adjustment of the policy interest rate in recent years has lagged far behind the market interest rate.
This year will still be a small number of follow-up rate hikes throughout the year. The Fed’s interest rate hike will still provide an excellent time window for the central bank. The central bank’s follow-up of the Fed’s rate hike will continue to increase the “correction†and convey the meaning of international monetary policy coordination. Of course, according to our analysis, the interest rate hike will still be based on new interest rate hikes. Whether the overall or asymmetric adjustment of the deposit and loan benchmark interest rates is not in line with the current institutional orientation. It is expected that a small follow-up rate hike similar to the end of last year will run through this year. As far as the Fed raises interest rates by 3-4 times, the corresponding new interest rate increase during the year is about 15-20bp.
The interest rate returns to a high equilibrium, and the future direction needs to see whether the core factors are more than expected. This year's 10-year government bond yields have dropped from around 4% to around 3.8%, and the pressure on funds has improved. The gap between supply and demand in macro liquidity has gradually narrowed, and the market liquidity has stabilized during the two quarters. Larger. The current interest rate returns to a new equilibrium. If the future interest rate is lower or lower, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the three major determinants will have an expected difference and the direction of the expected difference. If the economy exceeds expectations, the supervision exceeds expectations, or the combination of US bond yields and the US dollar exceeds expectations, it will bring greater upward pressure on domestic interest rates, which may push up interest rates to 4.1%-4.4%. point. Otherwise, the risk-free interest rate has a high probability of maintaining range fluctuations.
Microfiber bathroom products mainly include bath towels, hair dryer caps, hair ties, hair dryer towels, hand towels and other products. The characteristics of the fabric are more inclined to strong water absorption, soft skin-friendly, easy to clean, etc.
Microfiber Bath Towels,Microfibre Bath Towel,Microfiber Hand Towel,Super Absorbent Microfiber Towel
Suzhou fortunate Textile co., Ltd , https://www.fortunatetextile.com