Last week, due to the situation of North Korea, the risk aversion continued to ferment, coupled with the poor performance of US stocks and foreign exchange markets, pushing gold prices to rise for the third consecutive week. After Hurricane Harvey left, US refinery capacity recovered slowly, leading to US oil on Friday. Fell more than 3%.
· Gold futures rose to a new high for a year on Friday;
· Geopolitics dominates the trend of gold prices, and financial assets fuel up;
· Four officials from the Federal Reserve released their dovish opinions last week;
· Most investors are still bullish on gold;
· Harvey’s hurricane has not been affected, and U.S. oil fell more than 3% on Friday;
· The net long position of crude oil increased for the first time in 10 weeks;
· OPEC, EIA, and IEA will release monthly reports this week.
Precious metals: gold futures opened for three weeks and then broke down on Monday
The gold price fluctuated drastically on Friday, which really tested the hearts of investors. The gold futures for December delivery of the New Zealand business rose to above $1,362, but eventually fell back to a record high of $1,351.20 per ounce. During the day, it rose slightly by less than 0.1%, and rose by 1.6% during the week, achieving a three-day rise in the weekly line, but spot gold closed down by 1.48 US dollars or 0.1%, to 1,346.61 US dollars / ounce; in addition, New York, December Silver futures for delivery closed up at $18.123 an ounce and rose 1.7% during the week.
However, after the opening of the Asian market on Monday, the spot gold gap opened lower by nearly 10 US dollars, and then continued to fall to a minimum of 1332.28 US dollars / ounce, is now back to 1337 US dollars / ounce; spot silver also collapsed, the lowest fell to 17.582 US dollars / ounce. Gold and silver fell on Monday, probably because North Korea did not test ballistic missiles on the weekend. As a result, risk aversion began to subside, and some investors who bet on geopolitical tensions began to leave.
Looking back at the overall trend of last week, the biggest contributor to pushing up the price of gold is still the geopolitical situation that continues to be tense. On the one hand, North Korea conducted its sixth nuclear test on September 3 and successfully tested the hydrogen bomb. On the other hand, there have been rumors in the market last week that the country will conduct weapons tests again on the National Day of the Weekend, so that the market has been In a state of fear. However, it is worth noting that North Korea did not conduct weapons tests on weekends as scheduled, which may lead to a reversal of market sentiment.
On the other hand, the turmoil in the US financial market has recently become an important factor in pushing up gold. The dollar fell about 1.6% this week, the biggest weekly decline since the last week of June. Although the three major US stock indexes were mixed on Friday, they all fell during this week's trading. The 10-year US Treasury yield hit a 10-month low of 2.061% on Thursday, down 2.6% this week. The poor performance of these assets will undoubtedly increase the attractiveness of gold, which will lead to the flow of funds to the market.
Within a week, Fed Vice Chairman Fisher resigned, and four officials from Brainard, Cashkali, Kaplan and Dudley have published dovish opinions on interest rate hikes. It’s no wonder that the US dollar and the US debt will be like this. Weak. In the economic data, the initial data and other data are not performing well. To add insult to injury, Hurricane Elma is approaching the United States, which may cause more serious damage than Harvey, when the US economy will be hit again.
Gold has such a considerable number of favorable factors, so in Kitco's gold survey, 63% of professional investors believe that it will continue its gains next week. Among ordinary investors, the proportion of this view is 58%. In the futures market, as of September 5, the net gold position of the week increased by 14,251 hands to 245,298 hands, which has been increased by 7 weeks.
In other metals trading in New York, copper futures for December delivery fell 10.2 cents, or 3.2%, to close at $3.042 per pound, down 2.5% this week; platinum futures for October delivery fell $4.50 Or 0.4%, closed at 1012.30 US dollars / ounce, but this week still rose 0.3%; December delivery of palladium futures prices fell 17.60 US dollars or 1.9%, to close at 931.25 US dollars / ounce, this week fell 4.7%.
Energy category: Hurricane Harvey Yuwei does not reduce the oil oil plunged more than 3% during the day
Although Hurricane Harvey has gone, its impact on the oil market remains on the market. Because the US refinery is slow to resume work, US crude oil demand will take a long time to recover, resulting in the New York company's WTI crude oil futures price for October delivery fell 1.61 US dollars or 3.3% to 47.48 US dollars / barrel, but with Last week's close was still up 0.4%. This is the first weekly increase in US oil in six weeks. At the same time, ICE's Brent crude oil futures for November delivery fell $0.71, or 1.3%, to $53.78 per barrel, up nearly 2% during the week.
As of last Thursday, Platts Energy's data showed that 12.8% of the US's refining capacity has not recovered, and crude oil demand has not yet recovered to the level before Harvey's hurricane. The result of weak demand is that US crude oil inventories have risen, causing oil prices to be under pressure in the past two weeks due to market concerns about oversupply. The EIA report released on Thursday showed that US crude oil inventories increased by 4.6 million barrels in the week ended September 1, ending the previous nine-week continuous decline, compared with an average market forecast of an increase of 4 million barrels.
In addition, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refineries in the United States has dropped from 96.6% a week ago to 79.7%. Hastings, a macro strategist at securities firm Seaport Global Securities, said it set the biggest drop since Hurricane Katrina and Rita hit the US in September 2005.
The reason why last week's oil performance was much better than that of US oil, largely because after Hurricane Harvey caused the US refinery to stop working, European and Asian refineries began to work overtime and shipped to the US market, resulting in crude oil outside the US. Demand has increased, and Brent crude oil prices, which are global standards, have risen. However, the market is betting that US crude oil demand will return in the near future. As of last Tuesday's CFTC position report, the net long position of New York crude oil increased by 16,248 lots to 382,113 lots, reversing the acceleration of the previous four weeks.
Investors and analysts are waiting to see the arrival of Hurricane Elma, when its impact on US crude oil demand and energy in the Gulf of Mexico is likely to play a decisive role in oil prices. In addition, the market will see OPEC's monthly crude oil market report on Tuesday and the monthly EIA and IEA monthly reports. The biggest attraction is whether the IEA has changed its expectations for global crude oil demand at the end of the year.
In other energy trading in New Zealand, gasoline futures for October delivery fell 1.3 cents, or 0.8%, to close at 1.648 US dollars per gallon, down 5.7% last week; natural gas futures prices for October delivery closed down 9.1 cents or 3.1%, reported 2.89 US dollars / million British thermal units, fell by 5.9% this week.
[Important data and events this week]
On Tuesday, OPEC announced the monthly crude oil market report, time to be determined;
On Wednesday, the US to the September 8 week of API crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories; EIA announced monthly short-term energy outlook report; IEA announced monthly crude oil market report;
On Thursday, the United States to September 9th, the number of jobless claims in the first week of the week, the US quarterly CPI monthly rate in August, the Bank of England announced interest rate resolutions and meeting minutes;
Friday, the monthly retail sales rate in the United States in August;
On Saturday, the total number of oil wells in the US to September 15th week.
(Editor: Liu Xiaoman HF108)
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